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Les Miserables and Round One

Charlie Weis should thank Lloyd Carr. Carr and Michigan are the only two things keeping Notre Dame off the front page every weekend. But it's likely Carr won't be around next year, Michigan's spectacular losses to Appalachian State and Oregon have sealed Carr's fate among most Michigan faithful. A fate that ESPN reports was probably (no surprise to Michigan fans) officially sealed in the off-season.

There's also the matter of Carr's contract restructuring during the offseason, which allows him to be paid for administrative duties other than being the football coach beyond this season.

And then there are the guaranteed two-year deals he negotiated for his entire staff, none of whom would therefore be left in the financial cold should he bid farewell and the next coach not invite them back.

Michigan has been horrible by any standard, while Notre Dame is number one in the country... in sacks given up. Notre Dame is also "dead last" in the country in total offense and rushing offense.

So what in Sam McGuffie is going on this year? If you look at the talent chart on the right hand side of the page, which looks at weighted four and five star players, Michigan is right on the heals of Florida and USC this year.

They opened flat against a dangerous 1-AA team and, while still in recovery mode, were buzz-sawed by a very talented Oregon team.

Is Michigan really that bad? The numbers on the right say no, but the play on the field has been pure skunkbear. Three things really:

1 - They were overrated to start the season with all of their losses and Henne was the perennial "almost quarterback." Michigan lost four first- or second-team All-Americans and five NFL Draft picks on defense and suffered through a summer of academic accusations. They returned only four starters on defense and six on offense. They weren't exactly national championship caliber (realistically) when the season began.

2 - A team can sense when a coach mentally checks out as Carr seems to be doing. Look no further than Mike Hart's comments popping off about everything from Harbaugh to guaranteed wins to see the loose reigns.

3 - The first two offenses Michigan played were actually very good and difficult match-ups. The thinking here is that the Michigan defense, despite their losses, will start to make strides against
a traditional drop-back quarterback.

On the downside for Michigan, Ryan Mallett, will make his first career start against a Notre Dame defense that has played much better than the numbers would indicate.

Notre Dame's plight is somewhat more understandable with a new offensive line, new wide receivers, a new running back and, oh yeah, a new quarterback to boot. What's scary is that ND doesn't have one lineman from the senior class on either side of ball. No one. In fact, there aren't many guys from that senior class left, just eight and they didn't come highly rated either.

Bright side, Jimmy Clausen looked very good, but he has - as the sacks would indicate - no blocking in the passing game and no running game. Weis's offense often look the best when Weis puts them in two-minute mode and now that he has growing confidence in the defense, you might see a more wide open Irish team.

So what to expect here? Let's begin with the tale of the rather ugly tape:

Michigan is giving up 36 points a game - Notre Dame? 32 - Advantage? Notre Dame on defense, but it's really a push. Michigan has a tough time with spread offenses.

Michigan is averaging 19.5 points a game - Notre Dame? 6.5 - Advantage? Michigan -- but now the Wolverines are starting a freshman as well. They still have Hart and Notre Dame has a defensive line that simply wears down .

You have to give the upper hand to Michigan heading into this game because Notre Dame has been unbelievably bad on the offensive line, but the other factor is the two frosh phenoms: Clausen vs. Mallet.

Mallet should win the battle of future 1st round picks: he's got the arm, the height, a better line and better receivers. Clausen has an arm and showed incredible poise for a first outing in Happy Valley given the seven sacks, but he, his receivers and offensive line are unlikely to get vastly better in a week.

It's a battle for survival, but Michigan's problem on defense has been handling the speed of its first two opponents, it doesn't face that speed against Notre Dame.

Prediction: Michigan wins Les Miserables by ten points. But both quarterback performances give their teams hope for a rebound and will be the real story: Mallet and Clausen will be in the Heisman battle two years from now. Despite the grim forecasts of "look at me because I'm trashing a great team" columnists, Michigan and Notre Dame are simply in a reloading phase. The most interesting way to look at this game is that it's Mallet vs. Clausen, round one.

posted by Scott Engler @ 10:05 AM