There is only one game of top interest on the day. South Carolina still hasn't cracked the upper echelon of college football and could with a win over LSU; not likely as 17 point underdogs. After that it's a grab bag of interest. Alabama/Georgia is the second most interesting game on the docket. Damn there are a lot of good coaches in the SEC. Though Penn State/Michigan could be the difference between a Michigan run back into the bowl picture and a pure clunker of a season.
Charlie Weis should thank Lloyd Carr. Carr and Michigan are the only two things keeping Notre Dame off the front page every weekend. But it's likely Carr won't be around next year, Michigan's spectacular losses to Appalachian State and Oregon have sealed Carr's fate among most Michigan faithful. A fate that ESPN reports was probably (no surprise to Michigan fans) officially sealed in the off-season.
There's also the matter of Carr's contract restructuring during the offseason, which allows him to be paid for administrative duties other than being the football coach beyond this season.
And then there are the guaranteed two-year deals he negotiated for his entire staff, none of whom would therefore be left in the financial cold should he bid farewell and the next coach not invite them back.
Michigan has been horrible by any standard, while Notre Dame is number one in the country... in sacks given up. Notre Dame is also "dead last" in the country in total offense and rushing offense.
So what in Sam McGuffie is going on this year? If you look at the talent chart on the right hand side of the page, which looks at weighted four and five star players, Michigan is right on the heals of Florida and USC this year.
They opened flat against a dangerous 1-AA team and, while still in recovery mode, were buzz-sawed by a very talented Oregon team.
Is Michigan really that bad? The numbers on the right say no, but the play on the field has been pure skunkbear. Three things really:
1 - They were overrated to start the season with all of their losses and Henne was the perennial "almost quarterback." Michigan lost four first- or second-team All-Americans and five NFL Draft picks on defense and suffered through a summer of academic accusations. They returned only four starters on defense and six on offense. They weren't exactly national championship caliber (realistically) when the season began.
2 - A team can sense when a coach mentally checks out as Carr seems to be doing. Look no further than Mike Hart's comments popping off about everything from Harbaugh to guaranteed wins to see the loose reigns.
3 - The first two offenses Michigan played were actually very good and difficult match-ups. The thinking here is that the Michigan defense, despite their losses, will start to make strides against a traditional drop-back quarterback.
On the downside for Michigan, Ryan Mallett, will make his first career start against a Notre Dame defense that has played much better than the numbers would indicate.
Notre Dame's plight is somewhat more understandable with a new offensive line, new wide receivers, a new running back and, oh yeah, a new quarterback to boot. What's scary is that ND doesn't have one lineman from the senior class on either side of ball. No one. In fact, there aren't many guys from that senior class left, just eight and they didn't come highly rated either.
Bright side, Jimmy Clausen looked very good, but he has - as the sacks would indicate - no blocking in the passing game and no running game. Weis's offense often look the best when Weis puts them in two-minute mode and now that he has growing confidence in the defense, you might see a more wide open Irish team.
So what to expect here? Let's begin with the tale of the rather ugly tape:
Michigan is giving up 36 points a game - Notre Dame? 32 - Advantage? Notre Dame on defense, but it's really a push. Michigan has a tough time with spread offenses.
Michigan is averaging 19.5 points a game - Notre Dame? 6.5 - Advantage? Michigan -- but now the Wolverines are starting a freshman as well. They still have Hart and Notre Dame has a defensive line that simply wears down .
You have to give the upper hand to Michigan heading into this game because Notre Dame has been unbelievably bad on the offensive line, but the other factor is the two frosh phenoms: Clausen vs. Mallet.
Mallet should win the battle of future 1st round picks: he's got the arm, the height, a better line and better receivers. Clausen has an arm and showed incredible poise for a first outing in Happy Valley given the seven sacks, but he, his receivers and offensive line are unlikely to get vastly better in a week.
It's a battle for survival, but Michigan's problem on defense has been handling the speed of its first two opponents, it doesn't face that speed against Notre Dame.
Prediction: Michigan wins Les Miserables by ten points. But both quarterback performances give their teams hope for a rebound and will be the real story: Mallet and Clausen will be in the Heisman battle two years from now. Despite the grim forecasts of "look at me because I'm trashing a great team" columnists, Michigan and Notre Dame are simply in a reloading phase. The most interesting way to look at this game is that it's Mallet vs. Clausen, round one.
That didn't take long. As predicted, Michigan was a highly ranked risk based on their over-hype positioning (see article: Michigan Overrated?) Unfortunately for the Wolverines they seemed to believe their own hype and were exposed far earlier than anyone expected. Now they've got Oregon, Notre Dame and Penn State back to back to back. History has shown that the Wolverines generally play well after an early season mishap and work their way back into the picture.... then lose to Ohio State and a team to be named later. Even if Michigan goes on a tear, most Michigan fans believe that Lloyd sealed his own retirement with the loss to Appalachian State.
Perhaps Michigan can strike back by wooing top Appalachian State recruit Lauren Caitlin Upton to Ann Arbor to enhance the reputation of its undergraduate programs such as general studies and such as South African Iraq relations?
I kid.
Michigan is the only school that got schooled on Cream Puff Saturday. Here's a fun exercise, go to your favorite site and click on 1-AA games and watch how many 1-A schools pop-up for week one. I counted 18 1-A schools opening up the year by slaughtering a 1-AA team.
Here's to the Troy Trojans who not only opened with Arkansas, then travel to Florida this week and Georgia later in the season, but they just lost their top defensive linemen. I should feel bad ribbing the Trojans, but what could they be thinking beyond gate receipts?
This week's Cream Puff face-offs aren't as egregious, but include Pitt/Grambling, Purdue/East Illinois, Georgia Tech/Samford and Arizona/No. Arizona.
This will only get worse, folks: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Florida and Arkansas all play horrifically rigged early season schedules.
On the fun side, we saw some huge games out of the nations top running backs. What's really impressive is the yards per carry average from week one:
I wrote about this before in The Next Bush Reprise .... but Cal's Jahvid Best is Bushesque. Based on just one carry, he's my leader to be the "Next Bush" - real scientific, I know.
The "Next Bush" Rankings:
1. Jahvid Best 2. Michael Goodson 3. DeMarco Murray
In case you missed it, here's the one carry:
The Next Bush equation is: lighting speed + vision/instinct + joystick like control over your body
And the scary thing is that Best only got four carries because Cal has so many weapons. The Pac10 is going to be exciting to watch this year with USC(Booty+ name your five-star back) Oregon(Dixon + Stewart/Johnson) UCLA (Olson + Bell) and Cal (Longshore + Forsett/Best/Jackson....)
My sportswriters kidney stone-like pain for stupidity award of the week goes to Fox's Randy Hill with his article entitled:
